Category Archives: Manifesto

Marginal cost of zero or substitute goods – Redux!

(Or how I learned to stop worrying and love economics AGAIN!)

Dr_Strangelove_Redux

Following my original post – which induced some head scratching in some BBC people – I’ve revisited this idea in more detail:

If I have only a set number of hours in the day to watch/listen/read what you have to offer and I can now carry/sit at/watch a device which allows me to do any or all of these functions, and more, then the scarce resource isn’t the spectrum required to deliver the audio/video or the printing press required to deliver the text – but the scarce resource is my time. Using DRM to try and create a scarce resource (which is what DRM really tries to do) where there is none is flawed – more so, when there is a valid scarce resoruce already to hand!

Why is my time the scarce resource?

If I have a device which lets me treat all of these separate functions like one act – instead of having to decide whether I buy this newspaper or that one, whether to listen to this radio station or that one, whether to watch this programme or that one – I get to decide whether to read this newspaper or watch this programme, whether to listen to this station or read this article, etc. – then I can switch between one digital version of content and another without distinguishing between them as being completely different media. So I can substitute one for another.

Now the guys in the audio business are in competition with the video and text guys as well as the other guys in audio for a limited slice of my time. The video guys are in competition with the audio and text guys as well as the other video guys for a limited slice of my time. The text guys are in competition with the audio and video guys as well as the other text guys for a limited slice of my time.

Once content people start to realise that to make their content compelling they have to ensure that the text they have also has the appropriate audio and video links and vice versa, then they too realise that each bit of content is in some ways a substitute for the other – but by putting it all together in one space it makes the need for me to substitute one for another unnecessary. Make this offering compelling enough and it means I just use you for all my audio, video and text needs (free and paid-for) – thus instead of substituting one content/provider for another I see all your offerings as one complementary piece.

The convergence of electronic devices doesn’t mean I will eventually use only one device for everything but what it does mean is any of the devices I will have will be able to display all the various types of media and either I will swap the digital content between them quite easily or the digital content will live in the cloud and all the devices will be connected continuously to the cloud and to each other.

This gets more disrupted by some of the digital content being free of any economic cost. Therefore, because I can substitute one offering for another – I can read the blog entry which has the YouTube links to what I’m interested in or I can pay to read your article which has links to the official video which I also must pay for (and is in a proprietary format which will only play on one of the platforms I move my media around on) – you had better makes what you have worth paying for because there is no incentive for me to pay, if both cost the same amount of my time.

Now some make the case that all information should be free but that is not what my argument is. Just because something is free doesn’t make it worth spending my time on – but when all digital content (audio/video/text) can be reproduced and put online for little or no cost then your offering must compete with free. There is no point ignoring this concept or hoping to sue it or technologically defeat it out of existence.

What you can do is recognise that free is your starting point and then add value to various offerings that you have that make investing economically worthwhile – so you can have a free low quality version which has a link to the free medium quality (nagging) ad supported version which has a link to the paid-for high quality, personalised download from the content producer’s distribution system.

With the rapid growth in storage capacity, for a much cheaper price per megabyte, then people are making the argument that the cost of a digital reproduction is, in effect, zero – two much repeated examples at the moment are Chris Andersons’s “Free! Why $0.00 Is the Future of Business” and Kevin Kelly’s “Better Than Free”

Both build their arguments implicitly on the demise of geographically restricted rights agreements – which is premature. But what they do correctly show, is that by taking the thing that makes the Internet so scary for rights holders (anyone can copy my stuff) and make that into a virtue (anyone can copy my stuff) then you begin to use the Internet, it’s community and your digital content to great effect.

Another article that gets repeated is a TechDirt one – “Saying You Can’t Compete With Free Is Saying You Can’t Compete Period”. I think the assumptions in this are flawed – but it does use “the marginal cost is zero” argument.

Once your stuff goes digital you have to compete with free.

Free is not a bad/good thing in itself but it is important that you recognise it as your starting point.

Adding value to the experience is where the sweet spot is in terms of being on the upward growth curve.

And that is the argument I was making.

Marginal cost of zero or substitute goods?

(Or how I learned to stop worrying and love economics)

Dr. Strangelove (Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb)

(Update 07/04/2008 – See this post for a plain english version)

I have one hour to spare

Do I:

Listen to a live broadcast in the hope of serendipity or the podcast I have lined up?

Click on the YouTube and DailyMotion links I have in an email or go to the on-demand offerings from the broadcasters to catch the programme I missed last night?

Follow the links in a story I’m reading online or do I catch up on the RSS feed?

Post a blog entry or update my Flickr photostream?

Listen to the podcast or watch the YouTube/DailyMotion videos?

Read the links in the story or update my photostream?

In economic terms:

Is it that all digital information must be free or that all digital goods are perfect/imperfect substitutes and if one is free then this is your price floor?

Is it the average cost versus the marginal cost of a digital item or the average cost of one item versus the marginal cost of another where all goods are perfect/imperfect substitutes?

Is one digital good a perfect substitute for another or is it that the scarce resource is time and the choice of goods determined by the lowest barrier to entry where goods are imperfect substitutes but the means of delivering them makes substituting one for another more advantageous than the pursuit of the original?

What value can you add to a perfect/imperfect substitute to make it a complementary good?

So:

What is really happening with the convergence of electronic appliances is not necessarily the shifting of all content to one platform but the freedom to substitute one digital good for another, both of which are in competition for the scarce resource – time.

The marginal cost of production – where a digital reproduction is claimed to have a zero marginal cost, as you still have the original but I have a perfect copy for free, as the cost of storage heads to zero, – is missing the point as far as I’m concerned.

I don’t wish to consume something only because it is free.

When the substitutable alternatives available to me are free of cost but require my investment of time then I have no incentive to add a monetary cost to the equation.

If what you have to offer costs me in monetary terms and time then you need to add value in a way that turns the substitute good into a complementary one.

The trick is to recognise who in the market are playing by the economic rules (mostly the consumers on the Internet) and who are seeking protectionist measures (mostly the rights holders – DRM etc.) and to show those seeking protection from the market how rational the market actually is behaving and that if they innovate, they can reposition themselves from being protectionists in a declining business model to being on the growth curve in a new business model.

Links for substitute goods:
http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?LETTER=S#substitutegoods
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitute_good
http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/substitute.htm

Links for complementary goods:
http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?letter=C#complementarygoods
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complement_good

Links for marginal cost
http://www.econmodel.com/classic/terms/mc.htm
http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?letter=M#marginal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginal_cost

Links for average cost:
http://www.econmodel.com/classic/terms/ac.htm
http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=average#average
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_total_cost

Getting a jump on Spring!

Although it’s not Spring yet, I felt a little spring cleaning was in order, so I’ve given the Digital Rights Manifesto website a bit of a spruce up.

Have a look and tell me what you think!

Digital Media Manifesto

http://www.chiariglione.org/manifesto/dmm.htm

Digital Rights – Part II

The British Library has launched a manifesto on Intellectual Property. PDF available here. My thanks to Paul Brown from BBC R&D for this.

Main points:

1 Digital is not different – Fair dealing access and library privilege should apply to the digital world as is the case in the analogue one.

2 Contracts and DRM – New, potentially restricting technologies (such as DRMs /TPMs) and contracts issued with digital works should not exceed the statutory exceptions for fair dealing access allowed for in the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act.

3 Archiving – Libraries should be allowed to make copies of sound (and film) recordings to ensure they can be preserved for posterity in the future.

4 Term of copyright – The copyright term for sound recording rights should not be extended without empirical evidence and the needs of society as a whole being borne in mind.

5 Orphan works – The US model of dealing with orphan works should be considered for the UK.

6 Unpublished works – The length of copyright term for unpublished works should be retrospectively brought in line with other terms – life plus 70 years.

Why is the blog on a seperate site to the website?

Digitalrightsmanifesto.com is the website. Digitalrightsmanifesto.wordpress.com is the blog. What gives?

Well a couple of things.

Firstly, I want to play with a blog before installing the software on my server.

Secondly, I have the mail running on Google’s Apps for Your Domain– so I am interested to see how much I could run on seperate platforms but make them all appear to be from the one domain name – the intention would be to run a blog as digitalrightsmanifesto.com/blog if I were to commit to running it from my site.

Thirdly, and most importantly, I am going to put ads on the website – and I would like to be clear from the start that anyone blogging on the site would, in effect, be affiliated to those ads on the site. This also would mean that anyone advertising on the site would be affiliated to the blog entries. Neither of which I’m comfortable with at the moment.

So let the fun begin.